Analysis of financial stability of companies with the use of imitation modeling of cash flows
| Autor | Ruslan Sagitov - Alexey Kirpikov |
| Cargo | Kazan Federal University, Institute of management, economics and finance, Kazan, 420008, Russia. e-mail: axelgreat@mail.ru. Tel.: +7 904 765 05 00 |
| Páginas | 249-265 |
Periódico do Núcleo de Estudos e Pesquisas sobre Gênero e Direito
Centro de Ciências Jurídicas - Universidade Federal da Paraíba
V. 8 - Nº 06 - Ano 2019 – Special Edition
ISSN | 2179-7137 | http://periodicos.ufpb.br/ojs2/index.php/ged/index
249
ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STABILITY OF COMPANIES WITH
THE USE OF IMITATION MODELING OF CASH FLOWS
Ruslan Sagitov1
Alexey Kirpikov2
Abstract: Most modern methods of
retrospective assessment of financial
stability of companies have significant
internal contradictions that hinder their
productive use in the process of scientific
research and practical activities of
economic entities. A coefficient analysis
of the financial condition is accompanied
by difficulty in determining the
normative values of indicators that
would take into account the industry and
individual characteristics of the
organization. The use of regression
analysis requires a significant array of
historical data and the selection of key
indicators that do not have a high level of
correlation. According to the authors, the
forecasting of cash flows using
simulation methods has a significant
potential for predicting financial
stability. The empirical basis of the study
was formed by indicators of cash flow
1 Kazan Federal University, Institute of management, economics and finance, Kazan,
420008, Russia. e-mail:
axelgreat@mail.ru. Tel.: +7 904 765 05 00
2 Kazan Federal University, Institute of management, economics and finance, Kazan,
420008, Russia. e-mail:
axelgreat@mail.ru. Tel.: +7 904 765 05 00
budgets, information presented in annual
reports, and also published in the media
by one of the largest petrochemical
companies in the Russian Federation in
retrospect from 2011 to 2018. The tools
of simulation modeling assumed the use
of a uniform distribution law of a random
variable, the justification of the
boundaries of the change in the initial
variables with a confidence level of 95%
was based on the provisions of the VaR
method. The conceptual basis of the
simulation model was determined by an
algorithm for formalizing the
dependence of the components of cash
flows on current financial and
investment activities with a resulting
indicator, which was played by the free
cash balance at the end of the forecast
period. According to the authors,
improving the quality of the meaningful
interpretation of the results implies an
Periódico do Núcleo de Estudos e Pesquisas sobre Gênero e Direito
Centro de Ciências Jurídicas - Universidade Federal da Paraíba
V. 8 - Nº 06 - Ano 2019 – Special Edition
ISSN | 2179-7137 | http://periodicos.ufpb.br/ojs2/index.php/ged/index
250
independent statistical evaluation and
visual presentation of the results of
experiments that demonstrated a positive
and negative level of effectiveness of
financial and economic activities.
Keywords: financial stability,
simulation modeling, cash flows, VaR
technique.
1. Introduction
The intensification of the
processes of economic globalization
taking place under continuous
fluctuations in the state of international
markets determine the inevitability of a
collision of companies with new
challenges. The most important
structural element of the strategic
management tasks of the enterprise is the
forecasting of cash flows, which allows
us to assess the growth factors and
financial risks of the enterprise in order
to increase its financial stability. The
forecast assessment toolkit is quite
extensive; it includes methods of expert
assessments, approaches to constructing
stochastic dependencies. We believe that
the use of simulation technology to a
greater extent than other formalized
approaches allows us to implement a
parametric assessment of significant
factors and circumstances that may lead
to a decrease in expected results
compared to predicted ones.
2. Methods
The fundamental principles of
the theory of analytical assessment of
financial stability have been
significantly developed in modern
economic science. At the same time, the
diversity of methodological approaches,
on the one hand, reflects a significant
discreteness of their content, and, on the
other hand, demonstrates an orientation
toward describing the current financial
situation. According to individual
researchers, financial stability, explained
through the concepts of liquidity and
solvency, implies the use of financial
statements as input, reflecting financial
stability on a particular day - at the end
of a fiscal year [2]. The disadvantages of
a retrospective assessment of the
financial condition of the organization
determine the object need for the
development of applied aspects of the
application of economic and
mathematical modeling tools, in which a
special role is played by scenario
forecasting algorithms, which make it
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