Critical moment

As my first column in this noble space, I chose to reflect about some of the main dilemmas and challenges that affect the national political economy. To begin with, it is evident that the pandemic has caused a mess in the country, resulting in difficulties and hopelessness for millions of Brazilians. Because of this, we live in a dramatic period in many aspects: health, social, economic, political and institutional.

Before the coronavirus appeared in the country in February last year, analysts were betting on a modest growth of the economy, not much higher than 2% for the year. With the arrival of Covid-19, the scenario, which was not promising, worsened radically. The economy has contracted sharply, and the fiscal situation has weakened due to the need to create programs to support companies, jobs and families. Now, with the worsening of the pandemic, discouragement has returned.

Given this situation, reactivating the economy by containing the virus is a top priority. This makes vaccination the fundamental public policy for the state. Efforts and resources should not be spared to vaccinate the population. The situation is even more pressing when considering what is happening in Chile. Despite being one of the countries at the most advanced stage of immunization, the increase in the number of infections and deaths by Covid-19 is notorious. This does not mean that there are questions about the centrality of the vaccine. On the contrary, it is a clear indication that overcoming the pandemic by vaccination may take longer than previously thought.

A second point that requires attention is the support for those who have lost or will lose their sources of income in this new, much more devastating phase of the pandemic. It is doubtful that R$44 billion over four months for informal workers, as the new emergency aid was budgeted for, will be sufficient to mitigate the socioeconomic impact of this renewed wave of infections. After all, the health crisis will largely abort the recovery that was expected for the private sector throughout the year. And there are no budgeted resources for programs to support formal workers or for companies to mitigate the effects of the new escalation of Covid-19.

As noted in a recent article on Blog do Ibre by my colleague Fernando Veloso, the pandemic mainly affects workers with less education. In 2020, there was a sharp decline of 20.6% in the employment of people with up to three years of formal education. Rates...

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