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Risk of diesel shortage on rise

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Vincent

The effort by the Bolsonaro administration to change the pricing policy of Petrobras, with the decision to change the CEO of the state-owned company for the third time in little more than a year, comes at a time when the risk of a diesel shortage is growing.The matter has already been brought to the attention of the minister of Mines and Energy, Adolfo Sachsida, according to a source. The warning from those who follow the matter closely is that, if the government controls prices, it will backfire, increasing the risks of fuel shortages substantially, which may cause crises.In scenario studies, one of the main arguments against a price intervention that consumes the cash reserves of Petrobras is that, unlike what some may imagine, the state-owned company does not have a monopoly over the gasoline market, even less over diesel.Petrobras was responsible for only 62% of the diesel production last year, according to data from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), which already disregard the production from Landulpho Alves Refinery (RLAM), sold at the end of 2021 to Mubadala Capital.If Petrobras abandons the import parity price in this scenario, it would do discourage the private market to produce, also affecting the interest of trading companies to import diesel to the country. Last year, Petrobras imported 7% of what Brazil consumed - the rest of the supply was completed by third-party production (7%) and imports (13%) by other players, in addition to biodiesel (11%), according to ANP data.A sudden decision by the government can generate a shortage of diesel precisely at the peak of demand in the country, disrupting the harvest period. Diesel consumption in Brazil typically peaks between August and October. Since the conclusion of the transaction to import fuel must happen 45 to 60 days before, the doubts about the pricing policy could dry up the diesel supply, which would be very bad.In addition, there is already a mismatch between supply and demand, with distributors ordering diesel for delivery in June at levels far above October levels - usually a peak of consumption period - which blared another warning.If it abandons parity price, Brazil would get in a much more difficult situation to compete globally for a commodity now much scarcer, due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and a supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic. Globally, diesel...

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