War can deteriorate food insecurity in Brazil
The food insecurity situation in Brazil, considered serious by experts, may deteriorate further with the war in Ukraine, a conflict that is causing prices of commodities, fertilizers and agricultural products to rise. According to José Graziano, former head of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), there is no lack of food in Brazil, but lack of income for the population.He says that the consequences of the conflict can already be felt in food inflation, but the scenario may get worse: most of the last harvest in Ukraine and Russia was sold, but a prolonged war may prevent new planting or its distribution, leading other producing countries to stockpile food and restrict exports.A survey by Datafolha in March indicated that 24% of Brazilians stated that the amount of food available to feed their family in the last months was less than what was necessary. This means that one in four Brazilians suffer some degree of food insecurity. Among families with a monthly income of up to two minimum wages (R$2,424), 35% said that the food at home was insufficient.According to FAO data, the war in Ukraine may increase the number of people in food insecurity by 8 million to 13 million. The organization’s simulation points out that the difficulty in supplying products such as cereals, corn and sunflower oil can increase food prices - which were already at high levels due to the pandemic - between 8% and 22%.According to Nilson de Paula, a member of the Brazilian Food and Nutrition Sovereignty and Security Research Network (Rede Penssan), there is no lack of food in Brazil, but a market dynamic in which it is more advantageous to export. "The country has installed supply conditions, but cannot supply its population. Food inflation is higher than the general inflation," he said.The specialist affirms that the conflict affects the international market, mainly in relation to wheat, and ends up contaminating all countries. At the same time, he points out that inflation is also behavioral: on one side, the desire to recover losses from two years of pandemic, and on the other, the fear of a future crisis due to the conflict.The General Market Price Index (IGP-M), published on March 30, rose 1.74% in March, compared to 1.83% in the previous month. The index is up 5.49% in 2022, and 14.77% in 12 months. The price of wheat increased 4.9%; wheat flour, 6.25%; and industrialized bread and cakes, 1.2%. The price of diesel rose 8.89% for...
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