Para 50% dos bancos, projeções de crescimento do PIB para 2022 têm forte viés de queda, mostra pesquisa da Febraban
A pesquisa da Federação Brasileira de Bancos (Febraban) feita após a reunião do Copom mostra que, para 50% dos bancos ouvidos, as projeções de crescimento do PIB para 2022 têm forte viés de queda. Isso ocorre em função da elevação da taxa Selic para acima do patamar neutro, incertezas fiscal e política (eleições), redução dos estímulos monetários nos EUA, entre outros fatores. Para outros 44,4% dos entrevistados, por ora os riscos estão equilibrados e um crescimento em torno de 2,0% é o mais provável. E 5,6% não escolheram nenhuma das opções. Zero vê viés de alta nas perspectivas para a atividade econômica.
Já em relação à inflação, a preocupação é que a maior persistência inflacionária contamine as projeções de 2022. Segundo a pesquisa, a maioria dos participantes (55,6%) entende que as projeções de inflação no próximo ano estão calibradas (pouco acima do centro da meta, em torno de 3,90%). Para uma parcela menor (22,2%), as projeções para 2022 devem seguir em alta, e a resposta do Banco Central deveria ser muito mais dura do que a sinalizada até o momento. Outros 11,1% dizem que as projeções devem recuar para o centro da meta até o fim do próximo ano. Eles acreditam que a maioria dos choques deve se dissipar e eventualmente até reverter em 2022, o que em conjunto com política monetária contracionista, deve levar a uma forte desaceleração da inflação. Uma parcela de 11,1% não escolheu nenhuma das alternativas.
De acordo com a pesquisa da Febraban, a grande maioria dos participantes (88,9%) entendeu como adequada a elevação de 1 ponto percentual da Selic ocorrida na reunião de agosto, assim como o tom do comunicado do Banco Central e a indicação de outro aumento de mesma magnitude na próxima reunião. Os entrevistados acreditam que haverá nova alta de 1 ponto percentual na reunião do Copom de setembro, seguida por uma alta de 0,75 em outubro, e outro ajuste de 0,5 ponto em dezembro, com a Selic finalizando o atual ciclo de ajuste em 7,5%.
A carteira total de crédito deve se manter em um ritmo de expansão elevado e crescer 11,3% em 2021. A projeção é superior...
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