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Meatpackers’ stocks rise despite avian influenza

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Vincent

The confirmation of the first outbreaks of avian influenza in wild birds in Brazil shook meatpackers on exchange B3 and initially brought down shares of chicken exporters. But contrary to expectations, since then, the shares of Brazil’s four largest meatpackers have gone up, driven mainly by signs of improvement in their operating margins - if the disease remains under control.An analysis carried out by Valor Data shows that, from May 15 to June 7, JBS’s common shares rose 9.21%, Minerva’s common shares rose 10.24%, and Marfrig’s common shares gained 5.9%. BRF led the gains in this period with 19.15% after it unveiled a capital injection of R$4.5 billion by Marfrig and Saudi fund Salic.The gain seen by the four companies comes after losses since the beginning of 2023. According to Valor Data, JBS fell 26.6% in the year to May 12, the last day of trading on the stock exchange before the announcement of the arrival of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) by the Ministry of Agriculture. In the same period, Minerva lost 22.35%, Marfrig was down 24.6%, and BRF gave up 10.51%."Until April we had a very bad macro scenario, both for beef and chicken," said Rafael Passos, an analyst and partner at Ajax Asset, citing factors such as the temporary embargo of beef exports from Brazil to China, the high cost of cattle in the United States, and the drop in prices in the global chicken market.The release of these companies’ earnings reports in May was another negative item for stocks in the first half of the month. But the signal given by the executives about the results was unanimous: the worst was behind and there was the promise of a gradual recovery, which would tend to intensify in the second half of the year.Stocks started to react from the second half of April onwards, counting, firstly, on a recovery of the losses already suffered. "This recent improvement is in line with the improvement we had in Brazil for risk assets," Mr. Passos said. "In the short term, we can still see a profit-taking...

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