Abril deve ter sido mês de maior queda do PIB, diz técnico da FGV
A queda de 8,8% no Indicador de Atividade Econômica (IAE) da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) em abril, ante março, sinaliza retração expressiva no Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do segundo trimestre, disse o economista Claudio Considera. Sem tecer projeções para o PIB do segundo trimestre, o pesquisador da FGV observou que abril deve ter sido o mês de maior contração da economia por causa da pandemia de covid-19.
A profundidade da queda no mês preocupa e deve contribuir para afundar ainda mais o desempenho do PIB no segundo trimestre, notou o técnico. Para ele, o desempenho do IAE de abril, com a maior retração da série histórica, iniciada em 2000, indica queda tão intensa que a economia provavelmente só voltará ao nível anterior à pandemia em 2021. "Duvido muito que recupere alguma coisa nesse ano. [O PIB de 2020] vai ser um desastre" afirmou.
No IAE da FGV anunciado nesta quarta-feira, a queda de 12,9% na atividade ante abril de 2019 também foi recorde negativo para a série do indicador. No trimestre móvel finalizado no mês retrasado, a queda foi de 5,8% em relação ao trimestre encerrado em janeiro.
Considera comentou que o mês de abril, no indicador, mostrou quedas profundas nas atividades da indústria (-19,6%), serviços (-10,4%) e comércio (-26%) na comparação com abril do ano passado. No setor industrial, somente a indústria da transformação teve tombo de 29% na comparação interanual...
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