Abstenção será maior no 2º turno, diz presidente do Ibope
O presidente do Ibope Inteligência, Carlos Augusto Montenegro, disse esperar uma abstenção maior no segundo turno das eleições, neste domingo, em função do aumento do número de casos de covid-19 no Brasil. Para Montenegro, o efeito direto disso será o favorecimento, nas urnas, dos candidatos com eleitorado mais jovem, faixa etária que deve ter o menor grau de ausência. Montenegro participou de painel online organizado hoje pela Associação Comercial do Rio de Janeiro (ACRJ).
"O segundo turno vai ver uma abstenção maior, naturalmente em função da pandemia, em que eleitores mais idosos terão receio de ficar doentes. Isso prejudica um tipo de candidato com eleitorado com faixa etária maior. Candidatos votados pelos mais jovens saem beneficiados, porque estes tendem a comparecer mais", disse Montenegro. O índice de abstenção no primeiro turno foi de 23,14% no país. Em 2016, o percentual foi de 17,58%.
Entre as grandes capitais, Montenegro afirmou que esse fenômeno pode pesar mais em São Paulo, onde os mais jovens estão concentrados no eleitorado do candidato Guilherme Boulos (Psol), enquanto os mais idosos votariam no atual prefeito Bruno Covas (PSDB). Na capital paulista, a abstenção chegou a 29,3% no primeiro turno, segundo dados do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
"Acho que isso não vai chegar ao limite de uma mudança de resultado, mas pode tornar a disputa mais emocionante, aproximar [as votações]", afirmou. De acordo com o último levantamento do Ibope, divulgado ontem, Covas tem 48% das intenções de voto, enquanto Boulos tem 37%. A pesquisa tem margem de erro de três pontos e está registrada na Justiça Eleitoral sob o número SP-09681/2020.
Questionado especificamente sobre a segunda etapa das eleições no Rio de Janeiro, entre Eduardo Paes (DEM) e Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Montenegro disse que a disciplina do voto evangélico face ao recrudescimento da pandemia pode sim encurtar a distância entre as votações dos dois candidatos, mas que a reversão de um resultado favorável a Paes é "quase impossível". No Rio, a abstenção foi de 32,8%. Segundo o Ibope divulgado ontem, Paes tem 53% das intenções de voto, enquanto Crivella tem 28%. Esta pesquisa tem...
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