Americanas case likely to impact large banks’ bottom lines
The collapse of Americanas after the discovery of a R$20 billion "accounting inconsistency" earlier this month is likely to cause strong impacts on the quarterly results of Brazil’s largest banks. As there is no defined rule for the level of provisions, it is impossible to know the exact amount, but industry sources say the case may be comparable to other large court-supervised reorganizations, including those of phone carrier Oi and mining company Samarco. This is also likely to be the biggest hit to the banking industry since the extraordinary provisions made at the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020.The total exposure of Americanas’s 10 largest creditor banks is R$23.4 billion, according to the list of creditors released by the company on Wednesday. This means that if the banks were 50% provisioned, as is the market practice for court-supervised reorganization cases, the impact would total R$11.7 billion. Some lenders question figures in the list, as is the case of Deutsche Bank, BV, and BTG. These last two took money from Americanas’s accounts to pay the debt, but these funds were later blocked by the courts.In a report released Wednesday, XP estimates that the provisions of the five publicly-traded banks could reach R$8 billion, if the level of 50% of the exposure informed in the list of creditors were considered. The most affected ones would be BTG, Santander, and Bradesco, which may see their quarterly profit reduced by 20% to 30%. Itaú and Banco do Brasil would face a smaller hit, of less than 10% of profit."Overall, we expect a greater impact of the Americanas case on BTG, followed by Santander and Bradesco, as these banks have the largest relative exposure to Americanas’s debt. The higher provisioning in the near term would not only marginally reduce their capital ratios, but also temporarily pressure their earnings and profitability," analyst Renan Manda wrote in the report. "Additional provisions of the remaining amount may be set up in the following quarters if the company’s new payment schedule is delayed or if banks make additional downgrades in their risk rating [for Americanas]."XP’s analysis considers a provision of 50%, which is likely to be the minimum banks will adopt. The R$20 billion hole in Americanas was announced on January 11, but it is still unclear whether the banks recorded the provisions in the fourth quarter (as a subsequent event in the financial statement) or in the first quarter of 2023...
Para continuar a ler
PEÇA SUA AVALIAÇÃO