Análise: Nem todo capital estrangeiro na bolsa significa novo ingresso de dólar no país
Os dados oficiais da B3 indicam um ingresso de R$ 28,14 bilhões na bolsa em janeiro, até dia 27, mas esse investimento não significa que tenha, necessariamente, ingressado um volume correspondente de dólares no país.
Na semana passada, o Banco Central divulgou estatísticas do setor externo que apontavam, até o dia 21, um fluxo positivo de US$ 1,607 bilhão em investimentos em ações e fundos de investimento. Para o mesmo período, a B3 informou um investimento de R$ 20,1 bilhões, o que equivale a pouco mais de US$ 3,7 bilhões, considerando uma cotação média do dólar de R$ 5,56 no período.
Qual dos dois números está certo? Ambos, mas eles têm conceitos diferentes. Os dados da B3 capturam o aumento da posição em bolsa dos investidores estrangeiros, mas não dizem nada sobre a origem do dinheiro. O investidor estrangeiro pode tanto ter aumentado sua posição porque trouxe dinheiro novo ao Brasil ou porque fez uma realocação entre ativos de recursos que já estavam dentro do país.
Já a estatística do Banco Central registra o efetivo ingresso de moeda estrangeira no Brasil, tomando como base os contratos de câmbio fechados por investidores não residentes.
Mas há outras diferenças importantes de metodologia. A estatística do BC é feita com base no contrato de câmbio liquidado, ou seja, quando a moeda estrangeira efetivamente entra no país. Já a estatística da B3 leva em conta as operações contratadas, que são liquidadas com uma defasagem de três dias.
Isso pode ter um efeito importante nos números. Nos últimos três dias do período que vai até 21 de janeiro, por exemplo, a B3 registrou um ingresso de quase R$ 4 bilhões. As estatísticas do BC, por outro lado, podem ter incluído uma parte dos investimentos feitos por estrangeiros nos últimos três dias de dezembro, quando o fluxo foi positivo em R$ 2,6 bilhões, segundo dados da B3.
Outra diferença metodológica é que a...
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