Analysts see stock market near 130,000 points by year-end
After a jump of more than 20% in three months and some sideways movement in recent trading sessions, the benchmark stock index Ibovespa is expected to continue advancing in the second half of the year, analysts say. The big question, they say, is to understand if the long-awaited recovery in interest-rates-sensitive assets, as the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) prepares to cut the key interest rate Selic, will be enough to overshadow the persistent weakness in commodities, the sector with the most weight in the index.For the end of 2023, the average of the forecasts of 20 financial institutions consulted by Valor puts the index at 127,000 points — to reach this score, Ibovespa must rise 7.54%. The median of the estimates is 126,000 points, which implies a high of 6.70% this year. The forecasts range from 113,000 points, which represents a drop of 4.30%, to 140,000 points, equivalent to a 18.55% increase.It is worth noting that expectations remained practically stable in comparison with the previous survey, conducted in January, when the index stood at 107.400 points, 9% below the current level. At the time, the average of 21 financial institutions was 126.700 points, while the median was 128,000 points, with forecasts ranging from 109.700 to 150,000 points.The index closed Friday’s trading session falling 0.25%, at 118,087 points, closing the semester with a high of 7.61%, a figure that does not illustrate the bumpy trajectory of the benchmark in the year. After a brief period of optimism in January, local political and fiscal concerns, and disappointment over the weak reopening of China weighed on the benchmark which reached 97,000 points in March.Since then, improvements in the local business environment and investors’ sentiment in the United States, combined with expectations of the beginning of the interest rate reduction cycle in Brazil, allowed the index to rise again, reaching a high of 120,000 points for the year, led by companies linked to the local economy and state-owned companies.And it is precisely the possible continuation of the process of revaluation of stocks sensitive to the domestic scenario that makes the most optimistic executives bet that the Ibovespa will continue to advance. Fernando Siqueira, head of research at Guide Investimentos, has the most optimistic forecast in the survey, even after revising the figure down to 140,000 points from 150,000 points."The price-to-earnings ratio of the index excluding commodity...
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