Avanço da covid-19 só piora cenário nada favorável de emprego em 2022, alerta FGV
A recente disparada em número de casos de covid-19 no país é mais um fator negativo no contexto desfavorável ao emprego no Brasil em 2022, na análise do economista da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) Rodolpho Tobler. Ele fez a observação ao comentar o recuo de 1,2 ponto no Indicador Antecedente de Emprego (IAEmp) em dezembro ante novembro, para 81,8 pontos, anunciado hoje pela FGV, que calcula o indicador. Com o recuo, o índice registra menor patamar desde abril de 2021 (78,7 pontos).
Para o especialista, o recuo foi influenciado por um ambiente de juros e inflação altos, que inibe consumo interno, eleva cautela do empregador sobre a demanda interna em 2022. Ele pontua que, se o empregador sente que um período deve ser de consumo fraco, isso na prática não estimula planejamento de abertura de vagas. "Agora [com aumento de casos de covid-19] vai piorar um pouco mais um cenário [de emprego] que já não era muito bom", reconheceu ele.
Ao falar sobre o resultado de dezembro, o técnico notou que, na prática, a queda no indicador, a segunda consecutiva, já sinaliza que 2021 encerrou com cenário fraco para o emprego. A inflação em alta, no último trimestre de 2021, inibiu mais ainda a demanda interna, com impacto desfavorável na atividade econômica do período.
"Desde fim de setembro [do ano passado] vimos que o mercado de trabalho já está lidando com atividade mais fraca, com juros e inflação altos", resumiu ele. "E agora vemos mais esse fator [de alta de casos de covid-19]", disse. "Isso adiciona mais incerteza ao cenário de mercado de trabalho", admitiu.
No entanto, o técnico afirmou que, em termos práticos, a piora recente de aumento de casos de covid-19 no país não deve conduzir ao mesmo impacto negativo, na economia brasileira, como no começo da pandemia. Isso porque, no entendimento do técnico, a piora no quadro sanitário, atualmente, embora seja mais um fator negativo de...
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