Bancos centrais estão longe de pausar aperto monetário, afirma Morgan Stanley
Os principais bancos centrais do mundo desenvolvido estão longe de pausar seu ciclo de aperto monetário, na avaliação do economista-chefe global do Morgan Stanley, Seth Carpenter, em relatório assinado por ele e sua equipe e enviado aos clientes hoje."Os três principais bancos centrais dos países desenvolvidos realizaram encontros na semana passada: o Federal Reserve (Fed), o Banco Central Europeu (BCE) e o Banco da Inglaterra (BoE) e apenas o BoE abriu a porta para a ideia de que pode estar perto do ciclo final", afirma.Para Carpenter, o ‘payroll’ de janeiro deixou claro que o Fed não está perto e a presidente do BCE, Christine Lagarde, nem aventou a ideia de que o ciclo de alta está chegando ao final. No caso do Fed, o presidente Jerome Powell notou que a desinflação já começou, mas apesar da interpretação baixista que o mercado teve da coletiva, Powell pareceu ter certeza de que o Fed ainda não vai parar de elevar os juros."Apesar da queda da inflação ter claramente começado, a inflação de ‘outros serviços’ - que Powell vincula fortemente com o mercado de trabalho - não revelou nenhum enfraquecimento ainda", disse, como mostrou a abertura de novas 517 mil vagas em janeiro.O economista diz que o Morgan trabalha com a visão de que a economia desacelerou mas mais altas de juros podem ser necessárias para assegurar o caminho à frente. Antes do payroll, o Morgan estimava uma alta de 0,50 pp até a taxa final de 5,25%. Carpenter destaca que o mercado deve estar atento ao risco de ocorrerem mais altas do que está precificado. "A próxima reunião do Fed é em março e até lá teremos outro relatório payroll e dois dados de inflação", disse.Segundo ele, o BCE nesse momento está menos dependente de dados porque há menos relatórios a serem divulgados até a reunião de março. "O BCE poderia ter...
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