Bancos podem ter redução de até 4% no lucro em 2021 com CBS, apontam analistas
Analistas iniciaram os cálculos do impacto da reforma tributária proposta pelo governo federal para os bancos brasileiros. No total, as instituições financeiras podem ter de pagar R$ 6 bilhões a mais em tributos, baseado no montante desembolsado no ano passado. Com isso, o lucro líquido poderá ser reduzido em 3,9% em 2021, considerando o pior dos cenários.
Nesta semana, o governo brasileiro submeteu uma proposta de reforma tributária para o Congresso em que unifica os impostos federais PIS e Cofins em um único imposto de valor agregado. Chamado de Contribuição de Bens e Serviços (CBS), o tributo terá sua alíquota elevada de 9,25% para 12%, na média. No caso da indústria de serviços financeiros, no entanto, o governo propôs um aumento de 4,65% para 5,80%.
De acordo com a equipe de analistas do UBS, as instituições financeiras pagaram R$ 24 bilhões em PIS e Cofins em 2019, sendo que os cinco maiores bancos – Itaú Unibanco, Bradesco, Santander, Banco do Brasil e Caixa Econômica Federal – desembolsaram mais de R$ 20 bilhões. Considerando o aumento da alíquota, os cálculos apontam para uma elevação de R$ 6 bilhões em impostos.
No caso de Bradesco e Itaú Unibanco, o impacto seria de R$ 1,3 bilhão, correspondente a 3,4% e 3,2%, respectivamente, dos ganhos antes de impostos. Para o Santander Brasil, no entanto, o valor é de R$ 800 milhões, referente a 3,8%. Cada 100 pontos-base de aumento no tributo reduz em 3% os ganhos antes de impostos, com o impacto maior para as instituições com menor lucratividade.
“Os próximos estágio da reforma tributária podem causar um aumento maior na carga tributária dos bancos brasileiros”, diz o...
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