BC: Indicadores recentes sugerem recuperação desigual entre setores e regiões
Indicadores recentes da atividade sugerem recuperação desigual entre setores na economia brasileira, avalia o Banco Central (BC). Apesar de melhor dimensionamento dos impactos iniciais da pandemia, a pouca previsibilidade associada à sua evolução e ao necessário ajuste dos gastos públicos a partir de 2021 “aumenta a incerteza sobre a velocidade da retomada da atividade econômica”, diz o Boletim Regional, divulgado nesta sexta-feira.
Os programas governamentais de recomposição de renda favoreceram a retomada relativamente forte do consumo de bens. Contudo, várias atividades do setor de serviços, sobretudo as mais diretamente afetadas pelo distanciamento social, permanecem bastante deprimidas.
Em termos regionais, os movimentos das economias também foram desiguais, refletindo a estrutura produtiva distinta ou as diferenças do aumento da mobilidade e dos impulsos dos programas emergenciais, diz o boletim.
“As economias regionais, após contração severa e disseminada no trimestre encerrado em maio, apresentam quadro de crescimento generalizado no trimestre encerrado em agosto”, diz o texto, acrescentando que a intensidade foi maior no Norte.
O BC destaca, no entanto, que há incertezas em relação ao ritmo de recuperação da atividade e, em termos regionais, isso é mais acentuado “para as economias mais impactadas pelos benefícios emergenciais.”
No Norte, diz o texto, a atividade econômica apresentou “o maior ritmo de recuperação após o impacto da pandemia”. “Contribuíram para esse movimento o aumento da mobilidade ainda em maio, a estrutura industrial voltada para bens duráveis destinados ao mercado doméstico e para as exportações de commodities e a maior importância relativa dos benefícios sociais.”
Assim, o Indice de Atividade Econômica Regional da Região Norte (IBCR-N) cresceu 6,7% no trimestre até agosto em relação ao encerrado em maio, e foi a única região a superar o nível do primeiro bimestre (período pré-pandemia).
No Nordeste, a atividade econômica recuperou parcialmente, no trimestre encerrado em agosto, a retração ocorrida no período anterior. O cenário foi favorecido pelo “aumento de mobilidade e reabertura de atividades econômicas...
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