BC nota indicação de juros neutros mais altos em países emergentes e desenvolvidos após pandemia
A incerteza em torno da estimativa das taxas de juros reais de equilíbrio em economias desenvolvidas e emergentes segue bastante elevada e, ao se observar as estimativas feitas recentemente por bancos centrais de diferentes localidades, não há um padrão claro de comportamento, embora seja notável alguma indicação de juros neutros mais altos em relação a 2019. É o que aponta o Banco Central (BC) em boxe do Relatório de Inflação (RI) publicado nesta quinta-feira (29).O texto nota que, antes da pandemia, alguns artigos de referência para a estimação do juro real neutro nos Estados Unidos e em outros países desenvolvidos, indicaram redução contínua da taxa de equilíbrio desde a década de 1980. "No entanto, diante do novo cenário internacional pós-pandemia, marcado por inflação pressionada e elevação de taxas de juros reais, iniciou-se na literatura e nos bancos centrais um debate a respeito dos possíveis impactos da pandemia sobre a taxa de juros real de equilíbrio", aponta a autoridade monetária brasileira, que elevou sua estimativa de juro neutro de 4% para 4,5% em termos reais.Leia mais:Análise: Relatório de Inflação mostra que adoção de meta contínua pelo CMN traria ganho próximo de zeroNo cenário de referência, chance de IPCA furar teto da meta em 2023 é de 61%, diz BCMesmo com surpresa positiva no 1º trimestre, projeção ainda é de desaceleração da atividade, diz BCTaxa real de juros atingirá 6,6% no fim de 2023, calcula BCBC altera...
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