BoJ decide política monetária pressionado por especulações sobre fim do controle da curva de juros
Os membros do Conselho do Banco do Japão (BoJ, na sigla em inglês) se reúnem hoje para decidir sua política monetária sob pressão, à medida que o mercado aguarda por mudanças na postura ultra-acomodatícia do BC e novos ajustes - ou até completo abandono - no instrumento de controle da curva de juros (YCC, na sigla em inglês).No mês passado, o BoJ surpreendeu investidores e analistas ao estender em 0,25 ponto porcentual os limites mínimo e máximo estabelecidos para o rendimento do JGB (como é conhecido o título soberano do Japão) de 10 anos, para a faixa de -0,5% a 0,5%.Contudo, a mudança imposta não tem sido suficiente para tornar o YCC mais sustentável a longo prazo, como pretendia o BoJ. A entidade foi obrigada a comprar volumes recordes de JGB nas últimas semanas para conter o aumento dos rendimentos, e mesmo assim o yield do título com prazo de uma década ultrapassou a barreira de 0,5% esta semana.Para o economista-chefe para Japão do Goldman Sachs, Naohiko Baba, o alargamento da banda estipulada pelo BoJ sugere que a decisão monetária desta semana será "importante", em contraste com a manutenção de sua política em quase todas as reuniões recentes.Baba avalia que há um potencial "crescente" de que o BoJ suba o juro básico, atualmente em -0,10%, e encerre a política de juros negativos no país que já dura sete anos. Com este movimento, o BoJ daria um novo passo para fortalecer o YCC, ao invés de abandoná-lo completamente, avalia.Economista-chefe do Instituto de Finanças Internacionais (IIF, na sigla em inglês), Robin Brooks acredita que seria "tolo" da parte do BoJ abandonar o YCC sem colocar outro instrumento que aumente a liquidez do mercado de renda fixa japonês no lugar.Por isso, dada a aparente insustentabilidade do controle da curva de juros, Brooks defende que o BoJ a encerre ao mesmo tempo em que mantém amplas compras de JGB, como tem feito recentemente. "Isso confundiria os mercados e evitaria uma apreciação massiva do iene" sobre o dólar, diz ele.Segundo Brooks, tal movimento significaria simplesmente substituir o YCC por um programa de relaxamento quantitativo (QE, na sigla em inglês). "O foco deve estar em evitar uma valorização descontrolada do iene. A melhor maneira de fazer isso é realizar a transição para um grande QE e, em seguida, diminuí-lo...
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