Bonds gain ground as risk aversion rises
Fixed income was the highlight of February, while investors excited by cheap stocks saw their strategy thwarted by a selling season in equities. In the absence of new money from foreign capital — the fuel that drove equities throughout 2022 and in January — assets considered more conservative and linked to interest rates proved to be the best option.In the monthly ranking, inflation-linked government bonds with maturities of more than five years took the lead, as reflected by Anbima’s IMA-B 5+ index, which rose 1.41% and is up 2.82% this year. The CDI (interbank short-term rate) is up 2.05%. Brazil’s benchmark stock index Ibovespa, on the other hand, fell 7.49 % in February and 4.38% year to date. The small-cap index, which includes stocks with lower market capitalization, was the worst performer, losing 10.5% for the month.With the perception that the key interest rate Selic will remain at 13.75% per year for longer, it has become difficult to compete with the triad of liquidity, yield, and safety of bonds. "I usually joke with the Americans at Principal [which owns 100% of Principal Claritas] that our biggest competitor is the CDI," said Ernesto Leme, the asset management company’s chief commercial officer in Brazil. "Since most asset managers are factories of high value-added products, the sector is directly feeling the lower risk appetite when it comes to raising money. The investor is likely to continue to embrace fixed income."In this segment, Principal Claritas strongly recommends National Treasury Notes Series B (NTN-B), which, in addition to being indexed to Brazil’s official inflation index, the IPCA, have secured good rates. Depending on the maturity, they have premiums of 4% to 6%. "If you look at the Selic at 13.75% and an expectation of IPCA at 6%, it’s the highest real interest rate in the world, the bonds are very attractive," Mr. Leme said. "I don’t have the courage [to suggest] fixed-rate bonds. I put the rest in LFT [Financial Treasury Bills] because you can’t ignore a 13.75% rate."As for corporate rates, the asset manager has lowered its indication by one degree to a moderate allocation, still above the market average. Mr. Leme says he is more cautious after the event of Americanas, which filed for court-supervised reorganization in January. In this segment, he prefers a diversified global portfolio, which has more options, liquidity, and a more efficient updating of market prices (and also more volatility) than in...
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