Bradesco eleva projeção para o PIB em 2022 de 1% para 1,5%
O Bradesco elevou sua projeção para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do Brasil em 2022 de 1% para 1,5%, argumentando que a atividade doméstica tem se mostrado mais resiliente do que o esperado. Para 2023, a expectativa foi mantida em 0,5%.
"Com dados até o início deste mês, o PIB demonstra sinais de aceleração em relação ao final de 2021, impactando, inclusive, a dinâmica da arrecadação fiscal e das contas públicas", escreve, em relatório, a equipe liderada por Fernando Honorato.
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Os dados mostram uma recuperação do setor de serviços e do mercado de trabalho além das expectativas de início de ano, segundo o Bradesco.
“O Caged e a Pnad continuam registrando fortes números na geração de postos de trabalho, especialmente de empregos formais. Essa contribuição da formalidade tem impactado a massa de salários, com alta 1% no primeiro trimestre em termos reais e dessazonalizados”, observam. A massa de renda ampliada – que inclui, nas contas do Bradesco, salários, benefícios previdenciários, repasses governamentais e proteção social — subiu 3,7% no período.
Influenciados por essa recuperação de segmentos de serviços associados às últimas flexibilizações das medidas de controle da pandemia e de uma indústria que apresentará resultado levemente positivo, os economistas do Bradesco revisaram de 0,5% para 1,3% o crescimento do PIB do primeiro trimestre de 2022.
A inflação, porém, também tem se mostrado mais resiliente e segue pressionada e disseminada, diz o banco. Diante de um ambiente de surpresas positivas com o mercado de trabalho, elevando os desafios de desinflação para o restante do ano, afirma, o Bradesco elevou sua projeção para IPCA em 2022 de 6,9% para 7,5%.
A estimativa de IPCA para 2023 foi mantida em 3,9%, "na expectativa de alguma queda nos preços de commodities", diz.
Apesar da inflação, na...
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