Brazil again lowers forecast for grain harvest
With half of the soybean crop harvested, the National Supply Company (CONAB) has again lowered its estimate for national production of the oilseed in 2023/24 to 146.9 million tonnes. This figure is 1.7% lower than the estimate made in February and represents a 5% drop compared to the previous season. However, it’s still higher than forecasts of private consulting firms, which range between 140 million tonnes and 143 million tonnes, and Aprosoja Brasil, of 135 million tonnes.According to CONAB, low rainfall and above-normal temperatures in key growing regions—such as the Central-West—led to crop failure. However, rains in December reduced some losses, while later planting in other locations ensured good results."After a discouraging start, with yields well below expectations in major producing regions due to unfavorable weather conditions early in the cycle, yields in crops planted from November onward have improved growers’ spirits, even if they have not been able to reverse the losses already consolidated. In states sown later, such as Maranhão, Piauí, Pará, and Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall has favored crop development," the CONAB report said.With this estimate for soybeans, CONAB predicts that the total grain and fiber harvest in the 2023/24 season will reach 295.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.4% from the February estimate and 7.6% less than in the previous cycle. The decrease is mainly due to a reduction of about 7.1% in the average productivity expected for all crops, to 3,784 kilos per hectare.In the survey, CONAB estimated that the second corn crop, planted after the soybean harvest, will total 87.4 million tonnes, 14.7% less than in 2022/23. Total production is estimated at 112.752 million, 14.5% less than in the 2022/23 cycle."As the soybean harvest...
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