Brazil can reduce dependence on imported fertilizers, survey says
Scenarios outlined by the Geological Survey of Brazil (SGB-CPRM) for the preparation of the National Fertilizer Plan, which should be presented in November, mitigate the latent concern of rural producers with the possibility of scarcity of inputs. Investments in technology and innovation and new mine discoveries could reduce Brazil’s dependence on imports of phosphate and potash to 24.5% and 48% by 2050 - currently those rates are at 72% and 97%, respectively.In an even more optimistic scenario of supply and demand, there is even the possibility of producing a surplus and exporting potassium-based fertilizers as of 2045. For this, there are a series of challenges to be overcome. One of them is to know and map this potential, since only 26% of the Brazilian territory is mapped on an adequate scale for geological recognition. The difficulty is even greater when it comes to exploration in the Amazon, where only 7% of the area is known and the activity faces environmental and ideological resistance."Basic research is a premise of the pre-competitive phase, it is the minimum that the state should offer for the entrepreneur to find opportunities," said Márcio José Remédio, director of Geology and Mineral Resources at SGB-CPRM. "You can't plan without knowing it." The lack of knowledge, he points out, is due to the exclusivity of research and exploration of the country's sedimentary basins - around 60% of the territory - to the oil and gas sector, more specifically to Petrobras, until last year.It is in these basins, such as in the Amazon, that the SGB identified the way to increase the production of fertilizers, with potential similar to those of the Ural Mountains, in Belarus, and the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, two world’s main suppliers. "These are very realistic scenarios, nothing impossible to happen. We have very good expectations. With regard to the offer, it is very tangible," said Mr. Remédio.The agency outlined three possible scenarios for the production of phosphate and potassium fertilizers. The first considers the maintenance of the current supply capacity of phosphate-based products, without increases in production. In this context, demand should go to 12.2 million tonnes in 2050 from 5.9 million tonnes in 2022, with a deficit decreasing from 56.2% to 47.2% in the interval.The second scenario admits an expansion of national production from 2035, but with the evolution tied only to existing exploration projects that depend on...
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