Cautela com pandemia intensifica busca por proteção do dólar
O solavanco na reabertura econômica da Califórnia – maior Estado do país em termos de contribuição para o PIB americano – intensificou a busca por proteção do dólar em um dia que as moedas latino-americanas já sofriam com uma certa cautela. O anúncio de novas medidas de restrição devido ao aumento de casos da covid-19 adiciona incertezas sobre o ritmo de recuperação econômica dos Estados Unidos, levando ao tombo de ativos de risco.
Por aqui, o dólar comercial fechou em alta de 1,28%, aos R$ 5,3890, bem próximo da máxima no dia, de R$ 5,3925. Como resultado, o real teve um dos piores desempenhos da sessão numa lista das principais divisas globais, com uma perda bem próxima a do peso mexicano, que viu o dólar se valorizar cerca de 1,40% no fim da tarde.
O nervosismo tomou conta do mercado depois que o governador da Califórnia, Gavin Newsom, ordenou o fechamento de todos os estabelecimentos com operações internas, como restaurantes, bares e cinemas, enquanto os casos da covid-19 continuem subindo no Estado. Vale dizer, porém, que a preocupação com o aumento de casos da doença em diversas regiões do mundo já trazia pressão para o dólar desde cedo nos mercados latino-americanos.
Para os analistas da Capital Economics, a disseminação contínua do coronavírus significa que a recuperação econômica da América Latina será mais lenta do que na maioria das outras regiões. “E o fraco estado das finanças públicas nas maiores economias, principalmente Brasil e México, significa que um retorno à austeridade é provável quando a crise terminar, retendo a demanda”, afirmam em relatório.
E tendo em vista a liquidez elevada do mercado brasileiro e o ambiente de juros baixos por aqui, o real acaba sofrendo com maior intensidade por causa da demanda por “hedge”...
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