Choque da guerra nos preços de alimentos e energia pode durar até 2024, diz Banco Mundial
O choque causado pela guerra da Ucrânia nos mercados de alimentos e energia pode manter os preços em níveis historicamente altos até o fim de 2024. A previsão foi feita no relatório “Perspectivas dos Mercados de Commodities” apresentado pelo Banco Mundial nesta terça-feira.
O documento destaca que o aumento nos preços da energia nos últimos dois anos foi a maior desde a crise do petróleo de 1973. Para as commodities alimentares e fertilizantes, dos quais Rússia e Ucrânia são grandes produtores, o avanço foi o mais significativo desde 2008.
“Isso equivale ao maior choque de commodities que experimentamos desde a década de 1970”, afirmou Indermit Gill, vice-presidente de Crescimento Equitativo, Finanças e Instituições do Banco Mundial. “Como foi o caso na época, ele está sendo agravado por um aumento nas restrições ao comércio de alimentos, combustíveis e fertilizantes.”
O Banco Mundial espera que os preços da energia subam mais de 50% em 2022, antes de começarem a recuar nos próximos dois anos. Já as cotações de produtos não energéticos, como agrícolas e de metais, devem aumentar quase 20% neste ano, com uma tendência de moderação na sequência. No caso de uma guerra prolongada ou de sanções adicionais à Rússia, a situação deve se deteriorar ainda mais, segundo o relatório.
Gill destacou que os choques de preços começam a aumentar os riscos de que o mundo viva um período de estagflação — desaceleração do crescimento econômico combinado com inflação alta...
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