Clima Econômico da América Latina melhora no 4º tri, diz FGV
O Indicador de Clima Econômico (ICE) da América Latina, da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), registrou uma ligeira melhora ao passar de 43,2 pontos negativos para 39,3 pontos negativos entre o terceiro e quarto trimestre de 2020. Apesar da evolução de 3,9 pontos, o indicador continua na zona desfavorável do ciclo econômico.
O ICE é uma média geométrica entre o Indicador da Situação Atual (ISA) e o indicador de Expectativas (IE). A melhora do ICE foi influenciada principalmente pela melhora do ISA, que subiu 4,4 pontos no quarto trimestre em relação ao trimestre anterior, passando de 98,0 pontos negativos para 93,6 pontos negativos, um resultado ainda extremamente ruim. Já o IE passou de 41,1 pontos positivos para 42,8 pontos positivos, uma alta de 1,7 ponto.
Na sondagem anterior, a melhora do clima econômico entre o segundo e o terceiro trimestre era explicada pela reversão nas expectativas que passaram de pessimistas para otimistas, enquanto a avaliação da situação atual continuava piorando. A crise teria chegado ao seu pior momento com a possibilidade de a região entrar numa fase de recuperação a partir do terceiro trimestre.
A sondagem do quarto trimestre confirma esse cenário, ao registrar uma melhora dos dois indicadores: ISA e IE. No entanto, ambos avançaram relativamente pouco e o ISA continua na zona desfavorável do ciclo.
Houve avanço do ICE em todos os países, exceto na Argentina e no Brasil. Apesar disso, os indicadores de todos os países analisados continuam em níveis desfavoráveis. Na Argentina, o ICE recuou em 13,5 pontos, para 41,0 pontos negativos no quarto trimestre.
No Brasil, a piora foi pequena, e o ICE passou de 32,0 pontos negativos para 32,8 pontos negativos entre o terceiro e o quarto trimestre. O país com o melhor ICE é o Paraguai (14,8 pontos negativos), seguido do Uruguai (21,4 pontos negativos) e da Colômbia (28,5 pontos negativos).
Seguindo a mesma tendência observada no ICE, o ISA continua em patamar considerado desfavorável em todos os países analisados desde o segundo trimestre de 2020. Quatro países registraram alta do ISA no quarto trimestre (Brasil, Chile, Paraguai e Peru), sendo que o maior ganho foi no Paraguai, onde o...
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