Informação jurídica inteligente
 Brasil | +55 (11) 31 81 77 29

Coffee prices may face volatility amid unknown harvest figures

Document Citado por Related
Vincent

With divergent estimates, the real size of Brazil’s 2022 coffee harvest is still unknown. And, even as this is taken into account, coffee prices may face surprises in the first half of the year.This is because Brazil is in the off-season (January to June) of a smaller production cycle, and the next one is not expected to be a "super-crop," as international market agents believed.In the importers’ view, the trees would be rested from bad weather, and the cycle could surprise to the upside. However, nature is responding differently. The 2023 harvest will be good, sources say, but smaller than 2020 — a record year that yielded 63 million bags, and that had been propping up buyers’ expectations.Analysts are cautious about projections for prices, but some see them going up. "We are in the off-season of a crop that was much smaller," said Eduardo Carvalhaes, from Escritório Carvalhaes. There is no exact dimension of the shortfall or the stocks in the country.The Brazilian production of coffee (Arabica and Robusta) harvested in 2022 is projected with a large gap. While the National Supply Company (Conab) indicates 51 million bags, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) foresees 62 million bags.For Fernando Maximiliano, an analyst at StoneX, it will be necessary to observe the pace of Brazilian exports in the coming months, a factor that will show the availability of grains and the appetite of the foreign market. This can still affect prices, he said.The international and domestic prices are on a downward path in the last few months, after an intense price rise that gained strength after the frosts in July 2021. But despite the recent drops, the 2022 annual average in New York, of $2.1283 per pound, exceeds by 25% the average level of 2021, according to Valor Data.Gil Barabach, an analyst at Safras & Mercados, said that there is usually a mismatch between the foreign and domestic markets during Brazil’s off-season. He sees room for recovery of domestic prices, but the weak demand abroad has curbed increases.Attention now turns to the first figures for the 2023 harvest, which are expected to be released...

Para continuar a ler

PEÇA SUA AVALIAÇÃO

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT