Confiança do consumidor não deve voltar ao patamar favorável em 2020, diz FGV
A confiança do consumidor deve continuar a subir nos próximos meses, puxada por expectativas mais favoráveis em relação à economia. Mas as famílias mais pobres devem operar com aumento de confiança abaixo da média, receosas do que ocorrerá com o mercado de trabalho, devido à continuidade prolongada da pandemia. A análise foi feita pela economista da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) Viviane Seda Bittencourt ao comentar a alta de 7,7 pontos no Indice de Confiança do Consumidor (ICC) entre junho e julho, para 78,8 pontos, anunciada hoje pela fundação. Ela não acredita que o indicador volte ao quadrante favorável, acima de 100 pontos, ainda em 2020.
Viviane notou que, atualmente, é visível o impacto das expectativas mais favoráveis na evolução do indicador. Nos dois sub-indicadores componentes do ICC, o Indice de Situação Atual (ISA) subiu 0,4 ponto, entre junho e julho, para 71 pontos - enquanto o Indice de Expectativas (IE) avançou 12,3 pontos, para 85,1 pontos.
Outro aspecto mencionado por ela é que as expectativas estão em alta mais por uma esperança na melhora da economia, ante meses imediatamente anteriores, do que em um incremento na situação financeira familiar. O indicador que mede o otimismo em relação à situação econômica foi o que mais contribuiu para saldo positivo no ICC, com alta de 7,7 pontos, para 111,5 pontos. Entretanto, o indicador situação financeira das famílias, mesmo com alta de 9,1 pontos, no mesmo período, ficou em 89,7 pontos, abaixo...
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