Consumo de combustíveis segue abaixo dos níveis pré-pandemia
Impulsionadas pelo setor agropecuário, as vendas de óleo diesel vêm mantendo a trajetória de crescimento no mercado brasileiro, mesmo em meio à pandemia de covid-19. Segundo projeções da Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), porém, o consumo de combustíveis, como um todo, deve continuar abaixo dos níveis pré-pandemia ao longo de 2021. A expectativa é que ele só se aproxime dos patamares de 2019 no ano que vem.
A projeção da EPE é que o consumo de combustíveis totalize em 2021 cerca de 134 bilhões de litros, uma alta de 2,9% em relação a 2020, mas ainda 3,5% abaixo dos patamares de 2019. Para 2022, são projetadas vendas de 139 bilhões de litros, em linha com os níveis de 2019, antes da eclosão da pandemia. Os números incluem as vendas de diesel, gasolina, etanol, querosene de aviação (QAV) e gás liquefeito de petróleo (GLP).
Os únicos derivados em alta são o diesel, dado o aumento das safras agrícolas, e o GLP, cuja demanda é fortemente associada ao uso domiciliar e vem se beneficiando das medidas de distanciamento social. Os combustíveis mais ligados à mobilidade urbana, como a gasolina e o etanol, continuam em baixa.
No primeiro trimestre, os volumes comercializados de óleo diesel cresceram 5,2% em relação a igual período de 2020. A expectativa é que a safra recorde de grãos em 2021 ajude a manter a tendência de alta. A EPE prevê um aumento de 4,2% nas vendas do derivado em 2021 e de 2,2% em 2022.
Já no mercado do ciclo Otto (veículos que consomem etanol e/ou gasolina), os efeitos da pandemia permanecem. Segundo a EPE, as vendas de gasolina e etanol, somadas, fecharam o primeiro trimestre com queda de 2,6%, na comparação anual. A estimativa é que, com o avanço da vacinação, haja uma recuperação gradual. A previsão é que a comercialização no ciclo Otto, tradicionalmente vinculado ao comportamento de consumo das famílias, cresça 1,1% em 2021 e 2,9% em 2022.
A estatal de planejamento energético estima...
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