Contexto global pode favorecer integração produtiva entre Brasil e Argentina
Apesar dos desafios comuns e locais que Brasil e Argentina enfrentam, a relação comercial entre os dois países pode avançar por meio da maior integração produtiva num contexto geopolítico favorável no qual as economias avançadas reorganizam sua cadeia de fornecedores.
Marcado atualmente por um desalinhamento político entre os dirigentes dois países, o comércio bilateral tem à frente desafios como um maior consenso em relação à política da Tarifa Externa Comum (TEC) do Mercosul, ao acordo do bloco com a União Europeia e a medidas para um novo equilíbrio da balança comercial.
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Essa foi uma das conclusões de debate virtual promovido nesta quarta-feira (10) pela Câmara de Comércio Argentino Brasileira de São Paulo (Camarbra).
Welber Barral, sócio da BMJ Consultores Associados, lembra que o desarranjo do comércio internacional sob impacto da pandemia e depois pela guerra entre Rússia e Ucrânia trouxe desafios comuns a todos os países latino americanos, como a pressão de preços.
No Brasil, a perspectiva é de pressão política importante para o próximo governo na área fiscal fiscal, com um primeiro ano de mandato com despesas públicas elevadas e pressão social maior como resultado do aumento da desigualdade social nos últimos dois anos. O risco, relata, é de medidas populistas que podem trazer resultado de curto prazo, mas que comprometem o crescimento no médio e longo prazo.
O contexto internacional, porém, pode favorecer o comércio bilateral. A América do Sul, aponta, é uma das poucas regiões do mundo onde não há uma corrida armamentista, o que torna a região um fornecedor considerado confiável do ponto de vista político. No movimento de realocação de recursos produtivos nas maiores economias, trata-se, diz Barral, de uma oportunidade para a região na atração de indústrias.
Para o ex-secretário de comércio exterior, há oportunidade de uma interação de cadeias produtivas que vá além da do setor automotivo, já consolidado. Para isso, a agenda bilateral comum deve alinhar questões como a revisão da TEC, a tabela que serve para...
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