Dólar acumula queda na semana e fecha abaixo de R$ 5,50
O rali de alívio do mercado de câmbio local fez uma pausa nesta sexta-feira. Ajudado por um dado melhor que o esperado do setor de serviços, o dólar registrou um ajuste após cair 2,30% no acumulado dos três últimos pregões e fechou em alta de 0,78% nesta sexta-feira, a R$ 5,4982.
O bom momento vivido pelo real ocorre por uma combinação de alívio com a aprovação do Orçamento e também um cenário externo mais favorável a ativos de risco. “A semana foi muito positiva para o real e, como veio um dado mais forte nos EUA, as taxas dos treasuries passaram a subir e isso está suscitando alguma realização”, diz Luciano Rostagno, estrategista-chefe do Mizuho no Brasil.
Rostagno nota, por outro lado, que a abertura havia sido positiva, reagindo à sanção do Orçamento. “Bolsonaro vetou, além das emendas de relator, algumas despesas discricionários e o montante total acabou ficando um pouco acima do esperado. O desfecho em torno do Orçamento é uma sinalização de responsabilidade fiscal”, complementa.
A estabilização dos rendimentos dos treasuries e a aprovação do Orçamento de 2021 limpam o terreno para o câmbio doméstico e colocam o real de volta na trajetória imaginada pelo BTG Pactual, que vê a moeda americana encerrando em R$ 5,40 no fim do ano. O banco nota ainda que a melhora recente da percepção de risco em relação ao Brasil faz com que a tendência seja a do ativo se aproximar do cenário otimista da instituição, que vê o dólar R$ 5,20 no fim do ano.
"Após superar a assustadora barreira dos R$ 5,80 no dia 8 de março, a taxa de câmbio já opera abaixo de R$ 5,50 e, agora, se encaminha ao encontro da nossa estimativa", diz o relatório, assinado pelos economistas Álvaro Frasson, Leonardo Paiva e Luiza Paparounis. "Claro que a volatilidade do câmbio ainda permanece elevada, mas o fato é que tanto os fundamentos da economia americana quanto a redução do risco político-fiscal no Brasil ajudaram na apreciação do real nestas últimas semanas."
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