Dólar avança e juros têm forte alta com risco político e IPCA-15 no foco
O dólar comercial é negociado em alta e as taxas de juros futuros dos Depósitos Interfinanceiros (DI) operam com avanço firme nesta quinta-feira, após o Relatório Trimestral de Inflação (RTI) e o IPCA-15 de março e a deterioração da percepção de risco fiscal e político. Outro guia para esse mercado hoje é a realização de leilão público tradicional de papéis prefixados pelo Tesouro Nacional, e usualmente pressiona a curva de juros.
Por volta das 10h20, o dólar tinha valorização de 0,57%, a R$ 5,6718, após máxima de R$ 5,6808. A taxa do contrato de DI para janeiro de 2022 variava de 4,73% no ajuste anterior para 4,87%; a do DI para janeiro de 2023 subia de 6,56% para 6,82%; a do DI para janeiro de 2025 avançava de 8,15% para 8,40% e a do DI janeiro de 2027 escalava de 8,70% para 8,95%.
No RTI, o Banco Central (BC) reforçou o plano de voo de nova alta de 0,75 ponto percentual da Selic na reunião do Copom em maio, a depender da atividade econômica e do balanço de riscos. A autoridade monetária também reconheceu que o arrefecimento nos preços de alimentos foi menor do que o esperado e calcula, hoje, probabilidade de 41% de o IPCA deste ano ficar acima do teto da meta de inflação. Para 2022, essa chance é de 14%.
Com o cenário básico do BC de IPCA de 5% em 2021 e 3,5% no ano que vem, o documento trouxe ainda uma discussão sobre cenários alternativos de inflação. No primeiro, com grande piora fiscal, a inflação nos dois anos iria a 5,7% e 5,9%, respectivamente. No segundo, com o agravamento da pandemia, alcançaria 4,5% e 3,2% em cada um dos anos.
Para o Bradesco, levando-se em conta o discurso do BC, essa discussão sugere preocupação maior com a questão fiscal do que com o agravamento da pandemia, vista como evento temporário, mas que não altera a visão de médio prazo para a atividade. “Acreditamos que o cenário alternativo altista tenha um peso maior, ainda que o RTI ressalte que tais cenários não expressam julgamento do Copom”, diz o banco, em nota. Nesse...
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