Dólar engata segunda queda consecutiva em mais um dia de variação acentuada
O ambiente global mais favorável a ativos de risco, com valorização em bloco de moedas emergentes, garantiu mais um dia de alívio para o câmbio brasileiro. O dólar comercial engatou sua segunda queda firme contra o real, em um movimento mais intenso que em outras praças. No entanto, mais do que uma tendência, esse movimento só evidencia a volatilidade bastante acentuada da moeda local – seja em momentos mais positivos como em dias mais tensos.
Hoje, o dólar comercial fechou em queda de 0,89%, aos R$ 5,2701, dando continuidade à baixa na última sexta-feira, quando interrompeu a sequência de sete altas consecutivas. Assim, o real teve um dos cinco melhores desempenhos do dia em um ranking das principais divisas globais, embora ainda acumule a desvalorização mais intensa da lista em 2020.
A variação mais ampla em relação a outras divisas emergentes deixa claro que qualquer movimento lá fora é amplificado por aqui. E, muitas vezes, a volatilidade do exterior ecoa ainda em fatores locais como o conturbado ambiente político. Não à toa, a volatilidade implícita do real, considerando um período de dois meses, é bem mais elevada que de outros pares e já supera 22%. O mesmo indicador do peso mexicano, por exemplo, está em 17% e do peso colombiano se encontra em 15%. Já o do rublo está em 13%.
Os movimentos do dólar no Brasil estão muito acentuados por causa do ambiente de juros baixos, algo inédito para o Brasil, explica Ricardo Kazan, gestor da Novus Capital. “Ainda estamos passando por um processo de transição de modelo de juro alto para modelo de juro baixíssimo. Isso faz com que do dólar seja um ativo barato para proteger outras posições no Brasil ou outros mercados emergentes”, explica o profissional.
Isso significa que, em dias de tensão, os investidores correm para...
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