Dólar fecha em alta, influenciado por cautela no exterior
A expectativa antes da divulgação da inflação de maio nos Estados Unidos, prevista para amanhã, fez o dólar se fortalecer contra a maior parte das divisas globais nesta quarta-feira, emergentes ou desenvolvidas.
No Brasil, esse viés se traduziu em uma alta de 0,67% da moeda americana, para R$ 5,0687. No horário de fechamento, o dólar também subia 1,19% contra o rand sul-africano; 0,16% frente ao peso mexicano e 0,13% na comparação com o rublo russo.
A cautela trazida de fora acabou deixando em segundo plano a reação ao IPCA de maio, que veio acima das expectativas. O índice acelerou para 0,83% na passagem do mês, acima da mediana das projeções colhidas pelo Valor Data, que apontava para 0,70%. Foi a maior taxa para o mês desde 1996 e coloca ainda mais pressão para o Copom, que se reúne na próxima semana.
"O forte salto da inflação cheia no Brasil, para 8,1% em 12 meses, torna certa uma alta de 0,75 ponto da Selic na próxima semana. O Copom também deve sinalizar que um novo ajuste de mesma magnitude está em vista no encontro de agosto", aponta a Capital Economics em nota.
Uma Selic maior eleva o diferencial de juros do país com o exterior, melhorando a atratividade da moeda para o capital especulativo. Por outro lado, uma possível leitura forte do CPI nos Estados Unidos alimenta o temor de uma retirada mais rápida que o antecipado dos estímulos por lá, o que pode se traduzir em compressão desse mesmo diferencial de juros.
Somado ao viés trazido de fora, participantes de mercado também ressaltam que o bom desempenho recente do real o deixa mais suscetível a correções, ainda que estas possam se mostrar de curto prazo.
A perspectiva de que a discussão a respeito do ‘taper’ (expressão usada para a retirada de estímulos monetários nos EUA) possa contaminar o segundo semestre é, inclusive, um dos pilares que baseia uma recomendação do Société Générale...
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