Dólar fecha em baixa reagindo a alta da Selic
O dólar comercial fechou em baixa de 0,30% nesta quinta-feira, a R$ 5,5680, repercutindo a surpresa com uma alta de 0,75 ponto porcentual da Selic anunciada ontem. A queda, no entanto, chegou a ser bem maior: na mínima intradiária, o dólar tocou R$ 5,4772. O movimento não se sustentou face a vários ventos contrários, entre eles, a alta dos yields dos Treasuries nos EUA, que fortaleceu o dólar contra divisas emergentes, e também um fluxo de compra da moeda americana por parte de empresas locais logo no início do dia.
Adicionalmente, parte dos investidores domésticos continua cética quanto à capacidade de um ciclo de normalização apenas parcial devolver atratividade ao real.
“A questão é que houve hoje uma compra grande de dólares por empresas e parte do mercado ainda está reticente em mudar o viés contra o real. A remoção dos estímulos é bem-vinda, mas essa sinalização de normalização parcial dos juros é usada por parte do mercado para manter o cabo de guerra com o BC”, diz Sergio Zanini, sócio e gestor da Galápagos Capital. O profissional ressalta que esse conservadorismo é ajudado, no momento, pela volatilidade das taxas de juros nos Estados Unidos. Um dia após o Federal Reserve indicar que não vai elevar juros antes de 2024, as taxas dos Treasuries voltaram a subir com força, o que inibe apostas diretamente contra o dólar.
“Chama a atenção os Estados Unidos começando a se comportar como um mercado emergente. O BC americano fala que não vai elevar juros, mas o mercado continua a precificar altas”, nota.
Ainda que o movimento do mercado de câmbio nesta sessão desencoraje uma postura francamente otimista sobre as perspectivas da moeda brasileira, é inegável que os fundamentos do ativo melhoraram com a decisão do Banco Central.
"O início do ciclo de altas e o tom da comunicação indicam que o BC não deseja ficar atrás...
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