Dólar fecha em queda em dia de poucos negócios
A ausência das bolsas americanas, que ficaram fechados por conta do feriado da Independência nos Estados Unidos, e o noticiário local pouco relevante se traduziu em um dia de poucos negócios no mercado local. Após uma manhã volátil, o dólar comercial se firmou em baixa na segunda metade da sessão e encerrou em queda de 0,54%, cotado a R$ 5,3182.
O volume do contrato mais líquido no mercado futuro, com entrega para agosto, teve um giro de R$ 33,12 bilhões, menos da metade do observado em dias normais. Por outro lado, a moeda americana acumulou queda de 2,61% na semana. Com isto o dólar quebra uma sequência de três altas consecutivas, período no qual teve valorização de 9,37%.
O pregão tranquilo antecede uma semana de agenda carregada e também mais curta, por causa do feriado de 9 de julho em São Paulo. Entre os destaques, estão o IPCA para o mês de junho e os dados da Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (PMC) e Varejo (PMS). "Dados de atividade para o Brasil e outros países a América Latina serão acompanhados de perto pelos investidores e podem mostrar uma recuperação em relação aos níveis "abismais" anteriores, sugerindo que o fundo ficou para trás", diz o Mizho em relatório. "Apesar disso, os números devem continuar a mostrar contração de dois dígitos na comparação anual, o que sugere que a retomada será apenas gradual."
No caso do mercado de câmbio, prossegue a discussão sobre a volatilidade recente da moeda americana. O tema foi abordado mais cedo pelo diretor de Política Econômica do Banco Central, Fabio Kanczuk. “Tem uma coisa distinta acontecendo com relação à volatilidade do câmbio, a volatilidade diária bastante elevada, e um aumento grande de contratos pequenos. A gente está tentando identificar um pouco a causa dessa volatilidade e em que sentido é eficiente ou não eficiente", disse o dirigente, que participou de live promovida pelo Banco Safra. "Não tenho muito a dizer, a não ser que estamos tentando entender. É importante entender o problema para saber o remédio possível.”
Kanczuk reconheceu que mudanças recentes na regulamento do overhedge dos bancos estão...
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