Dólar e juros futuros têm queda moderada com cena externa no radar
O dólar comercial e os juros futuros iniciaram o pregão desta quarta-feira em leve queda, conforme os agentes financeiros avaliam a redução nas tensões no leste da Europa e aguardam pela divulgação da ata da última reunião do Federal Reserve (Fed, banco central americano).
Por volta de 9h50, a taxa do contrato futuro de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2023 caía de 12,39% no ajuste anterior para 12,365%; a do DI janeiro de 2024 recuava de 11,92% para 11,90%; a do DI janeiro de 2025 diminuía de 11,35% para 11,305%; e a do DI janeiro de 2027 se reduzia de 11,22% para 11,18%. Já o dólar recuava 0,41%, para R$ 5,1588, após mínima a R$ 5,1513 no mercado de câmbio à vista.
A ata da última reunião do Comitê Federal de Mercado Aberto (Fomc, na sigla em inglês) do Fed pode pautar os negócios desta quarta-feira, detalhando a leitura do colegiado acerca do comportamento da inflação, a maior em 40 anos nos Estados Unidos, e o mercado de trabalho apertado. Agentes financeiros buscam pistas sobre o plano de voo do banco central americano, no momento em que uma elevação de 0,5 ponto percentual dos Fed Funds está sobre a mesa.
Segundo os contratos futuros de Fed Funds negociados no CME Group, a probabilidade de uma alta de juros de tal magnitude na reunião do Fed em março é de 58%. O presidente da distrital do Fed de St. Louis, James Bullard, disse na semana passada que esperava o aumento de um ponto da taxa de juros de referência dos EUA até julho. Como até lá o Fed se reúne três vezes, ficou implicado que Bullard projeta ao menos uma alta de 0,5 ponto dos juros no período.
O documento, que será divulgado às 16h, é referente à reunião realizada nos dias 25 e 26 de janeiro pelo Fed. Na ocasião, as autoridades do Fed aproveitaram para “preparar o mercado para uma decolagem [dos juros] iminente em março, com o presidente Powell, em particular, dando uma guinada ‘hawkish’ (inclinação à alta de juros) na coletiva de imprensa”, observa o macro estrategista do TD Securities, Oscar Munoz.
“O foco agora se voltará para as discussões sobre planos de política de curto prazo. Particularmente nas etapas de normalização...
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