Dólar opera em queda e puxa juros futuros para baixo em dia de exterior positivo
O progresso em torno de programas de vacinação ao redor do globo e a perspectiva de continuidade dos estímulos monetários e fiscais permite um ambiente de queda do dólar ante o real, em um movimento alinhado ao observado em outros mercados emergentes nesta segunda-feira. A queda do dólar puxa para baixo os juros futuros, que, no entanto, mostram recuo tímido diante das incertezas relativas ao cenário macroeconômico brasileiro para este ano.
Por volta de 9h30, o dólar era negociado a R$ 5,1318, em queda de 1,07% no mercado à vista. No mesmo horário, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2022 cedia de 2,87% no ajuste anterior para 2,83%; a do DI para janeiro de 2023 caía de 4,20% para 4,17%; a do contrato para janeiro de 2025 recuava de 5,65% para 5,62%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 passava de 6,42% para 6,38%.
O ambiente de ampla liquidez nos mercados globais continua a conferir valorização dos ativos de risco ao redor do globo, o que tem favorecido o real desde o fim de 2020. A queda do dólar de forma generalizada na manhã desta segunda-feira também indica que a tendência de uma moeda americana mais fraca continua em vigor e pode se mostrar ainda mais forte a depender das eleições na Geórgia amanhã para a definição de duas cadeiras para o Senado dos Estados Unidos.
Pesquisas mais recentes têm apontado para uma vitória apertada, dentro da margem de erro, dos dois candidatos democratas. Caso isso se confirme, o mercado pode interpretar o movimento como uma "onda azul leve", já que os democratas ficariam com 50 cadeiras e o voto de minerva em questões importantes caberia à vice-presidente, Kamala Harris, que também ocupa a função de presidente do Senado. Uma maioria democrata nas duas casas é interpretada pelo mercado como uma chance de aprovação de medidas fiscais ainda mais amplas de estímulos à economia americana.
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