Dólar recua com exterior e juros rondam ajustes à espera de inflação nos EUA
O dólar abriu o pregão desta quinta-feira em queda moderada, alinhando-se ao comportamento da moeda ante divisas emergentes pares do real, antes da divulgação dos dados da inflação ao consumidor de maio dos Estados Unidos.
Perto de 9h15, o dólar comercial recuava 0,33%, saindo a R$ 5,0522. No mesmo horário, a divisa americana caía 1,12% contra a lira turca, 0,54% ante o rand sul-africano, 0,21% em relação ao rublo russo e perdia 0,10% diante do peso mexicano.
O mercado fica à espera do índice de preços americano, que deve calibrar as apostas dos agentes financeiros em relação à condução da política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed, banco central americano). As estimativas para o núcleo da inflação americana são de 0,4% (na comparação mensal) e 3,4% (anual) e, para o índice “cheio”, de 0,4% e 4,7%, respectivamente.
Uma leitura negativa acerca do aumento do nível geral de preços nos EUA provavelmente implicará em um fortalecimento do dólar no exterior, bem como um avanço do rendimento dos títulos do Tesouro (Treasury) com vencimento em dez anos no país, na esteira da visão de que o Fed deverá antecipar um movimento na compra de ativos e nos juros. Ainda assim, cabe pontuar que dirigentes do Fed têm reconhecido o caráter temporário da alta dos preços e que não haverá mudança na política monetária ultraestimulativa antes de uma melhora substancial no mercado de trabalho.
Enquanto isso, os juros futuros ficam próximos da estabilidade após a abertura, rondando os ajustes precedentes. As taxas dos contratos futuros de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2022 subiam de 5,22% no ajuste anterior para 5,24%; as do DI para janeiro de 2023 tinham alta de 6,81% para 6,83%; as do DI para janeiro de 2025 variavam de 7,84% para 7,83% e as do DI para janeiro de 2027 passavam de 8,33% para 8,34%.
“Não dá para negar que, a despeito de diferentes níveis e realidades da política...
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