Dólar reverte ganhos da semana e fecha em baixa reagindo a exterior positivo
O pregão de alívio para ativos de risco no exterior acabou conduzindo o mercado de câmbio doméstico. De olho no recuo dos títulos do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos (Treasuries) e na recuperação das ações em todo o mundo, o dólar devolveu parte dos ganhos acumulados durante a semana contra praticamente todas as demais divisas. No Brasil, embora o noticiário local não tenha ajudado, o viés trazido de fora foi suficiente para derrubar o dólar abaixo dos R$ 5,40 novamente.
No fim do dia, a moeda americana foi negociada a R$ 5,3684, baixa de 1,42%. Na semana, no entanto, acumulou alta de 0,47%. No mesmo horário, o dólar cedia 1,48% contra a coroa norueguesa, 1,20% frente ao rand sul-africano e 0,94% ante o peso mexicano.
Para José Faria Junior, diretor da WIA Investimentos, o movimento dos preços hoje tanto na bolsa quanto no câmbio e juros sugere que o dia foi mais uma busca por oportunidades baratas. “Atingiram todos eles os objetivos de curto prazo. Para mudar a tendência de médio e longo prazo, que ainda mostra piora, precisam continuar assim por mais alguns dias”, pondera.
Em relação ao câmbio, o profissional entende que duas coisas precisam acontecer para o dólar poder voltar a enxergar uma queda abaixo dos R$ 5,25. Uma delas é o índice DXY, que não pode ultrapassar os 95 pontos — esta tarde, operava em baixa de 0,205, aos 90,04 pontos. A outra é algum encaminhamento do imbróglio em relação ao Orçamento do ano que vem, em especial a questão do novo Bolsa Família.
“Até lá, acredito que o dólar deve permanecer rodando nessa faixa de R$ 5,30 a R$ 5,50”, pondera. Entre os indicadores que podem ajudar a clarear esse cenário, continua, estão o relatório sobre o mercado de trabalho dos Estados Unidos, o chamado "payroll", de setembro, que sai na próxima sexta-feira (8), e o índice americano de preços ao consumidor (CPI)...
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