Dólar sobe e vai a R$ 5,26 de olho em exterior e Copom
O dólar comercial chegou hoje à sexta alta consecutiva, atingindo a marca de R$ 5,26, num movimento que mostra uma certa cautela dos investidores com o mercado local de câmbio, a despeito da percepção mais favorável a ativos de risco como ações. Analistas comentam que a moeda brasileira até conseguiu seguir o enfraquecimento global do dólar que prevaleceu até semana passada, mas os riscos fiscais e o ajuste a novos patamares de juros acabam jogando contra qualquer alívio.
Hoje, o dólar comercial fechou em alta de 0,46%, aos R$ 5,2607, depois de oscilar cerca de dez centavos entre a mínima do dia (R$ 5,1828) e máxima (R$ 5,2712). Desta vez, a direção é bem parecida com a observada contra o peso mexicano e rublo russo. Numa lista das principais divisas globais, os emergentes tiveram os piores desempenhos do dia, com o real no quarto lugar.
O que se observa nos últimos dias é que, a despeito de novos avanços das bolsas globais em um ambiente de abundância de liquidez, os investidores ainda preferem se ater à proteção do dólar. Além disso, alguns indicadores mais favoráveis dos EUA acabam atraindo recursos para lá. E o cenário fica um pouco mais desafiador por aqui devido às vulnerabilidades da economia brasileira, como os casos ainda elevados de contágio da covid-19 e os riscos de descontrole fiscal, dado os gastos extraordinários para combater a crise.
Sócio-fundador e gestor da Ibiuna Investimentos, Mário Torós avalia que o real tende a se beneficiar de movimentos de queda do dólar no mundo, como ocorreu nas últimas semanas. No entanto, ele acredita que, em termos relativos, a divisa brasileira deve seguir com o pior desempenho entre os pares. E isso ocorre por causa do risco fiscal. “O que estamos vendo é uma preocupação que se reflete no real, mas também na inclinação da curva de juros e no CDS É uma situação bastante difícil”, explicou, em live do BTG Pactual. Ele acrescenta que, enquanto se testa os limites da política monetária, a política fiscal “já testou todos os limites...
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