Dólar tem leve baixa pesando cautela externa e realização local
Em linha com o comportamento recente, o mercado de câmbio viveu um novo dia de volatilidade nesta terça. Embora o ambiente local não tenha produzido nenhuma fato relevante novo - o que pode até ser considerado uma boa notícia - o exterior registrou mais um pregão de cautela. Com isso, a moeda americana voltou a testar o patamar de R$ 5,30 e chegou a furar pontualmente o nível. No entanto, tal movimento parece ter chamado uma realização de lucros, o que segurou a cotação para baixo.
No encerramento do dia, a moeda americana fechou negociada a R$ 5,2726, baixa de 0,12%. Com isso, o real foi uma das poucas moedas que se valorizou no pregão. No horário acima, o dólar subia 0,51% contra o peso mexicano, 0,39% frente ao rublo russo e 0,66% na comparação com o peso o rand sul-africano.
Em dois momentos do dia, o mau humor externo fez a cotação testar os R$ 5,30, que acabou prevalecendo. “O mercado continua trabalhando com uma continuidade do ciclo de altas da Selic, que ajuda a conter maior depreciação do câmbio. Então, quando bate nesse nível [de R$ 5,30], o que ocorre é uma realização de lucros por parte de quem está comprado na moeda americana, e isso pode ter sido ajudado por algum fluxo pontual”, comenta um profissional de tesouraria.
Ainda assim, diante de um cenário mais difícil, com pontos de preocupação surgindo tanto lá fora quanto aqui dentro, essa resistência está ameaçada, diz o diretor da WIA Investimentos, José Faria Junior. “Tenho dito a meus clientes que, se o dólar ultrapassar os R$ 5,32, o nosso modelo não sugere mais venda, porque ele pode alcançar os R$ 5,50”, comenta. “Se nada mudar aqui ou no exterior, podemos ver a moeda americana testar patamares mais altos rapidamente”.
Junior cita, entre as preocupações externas, as incertezas sobre o efeito da variante delta da covid-19 sobre o gargalo de oferta mundial e também o receio de que o Federal Reserve possa anunciar que irá reduzir o...
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