Dólar tem leve queda com investidor atento a movimentações em Brasília
Após passar a maior parte da tarde em queda moderada, o dólar comercial devolveu praticamente todo o movimento na reta final do pregão desta terça-feira, com investidores ainda buscando entender o sentido da reforma ministerial do presidente Jair Bolsonaro e também repercutindo a renúncia coletiva dos chefes das Forças Armadas após a troca do ministro da Defesa, Fernando Azevedo e Silva.
Após tocar R$ 5,7216 na mínima intradiária, a moeda americana fechou cotada a R$ 5,7613, baixa de 0,10%. Além do ajuste técnico após quatro pregões consecutivos de alta, período o dólar no qual acumulou valorização de 4,57%, investidores notaram ainda alguma influência da disputa pela formação da Ptax de fim de mês e trimestre.
O pregão relativamente calmo no câmbio e também em para outros ativos locais, no entanto, não tirou do centro das atenções as mudanças de ministério anunciadas por Bolsonaro ontem. "As mudanças miram elevar a governabilidade ao reduzir a influência da ala mais ideológica no governo e fortalecer laços com os partidos centristas no Congresso", diz Luciano Rostagno, estrategista-chefe do Mizuho. "Por outro lado, a forma como o anúncio foi feito sugere que a crise da pandemia escalou a ponto de Bolsonaro passar a temer um processo de impeachment."
Embora alguns tenham feito a leitura de que uma maior aproximação com o centrão seja positiva para governabilidade, a forma como feita sugere que as mudanças de ontem visam muito mais garantir a sustentação de Bolsonaro na cadeira de presidente até 2022, com pouco efeito prático para a agenda de reformas. A avaliação é do cientista político Rafael Cortez, sócio da Tendências Consultoria.
"Existiam duas leituras sobre como o governo iria reagir a essa conjuntura mais adversa", diz Cortez. "A primeira é que a turbulência da pandemia e a rivalidade eleitoral representada pela volta do ex-presidente Lula ao jogo gerariam uma adaptação no modus operando do governo, uma espécie de efeito corretivo da competição democrática. A segunda é que o governo iria se agarrar a determinados setores para minimizar as chances de interrupção de seu mandato - nesse caso, importam...
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