Economia deve crescer 4% em 2021, e PIB industrial deve avançar 4,4%, diz CNI
A Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) estima que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) deverá crescer 4% no ano que vem, impulsionado pelo avanço de 4,4% do PIB industrial, segundo edição especial do Informe Conjuntural – Economia Brasileira divulgada pela entidade nesta quarta-feira.
O estudo mostra que parte significativa do crescimento econômico será explicada pela base de comparação com 2020, marcado por uma recessão decorrente dos efeitos da pandemia do novo coronavírus sobre a atividade econômica. A estimativa é que, neste ano, o PIB caia 4,3% na comparação com 2019, e o PIB industrial, 3,5%.
O setor público consolidado, que inclui governos federal, regionais e suas estatais, deve registrar um déficit primário de R$ 789 bilhões, ou 10,93% do PIB no fechamento de 2020. Isso significa que as despesas do setor público, ampliadas fundamentalmente em decorrência das medidas para conter a pandemia de covid-19, superarão em muito as suas receitas. A dívida bruta deverá fechar 2020 em 92,8% do PIB.
Com a melhora na atividade econômica e a previsão de redução de despesas em 2021, o resultado fiscal do setor público consolidado deverá melhorar em 2021. A estimativa é que, no próximo ano, o déficit primário seja de R$ 192 bilhões, ou 2,50% do PIB estimado pela CNI.
Com isso, o déficit primário do setor público consolidado ficará R$ 45,3 bilhões abaixo da meta estabelecida no Projeto de Lei Orçamentária de 2021 (PLOA 2021), que ainda depende de aprovação no Congresso Nacional.
As projeções da CNI mostram que a taxa de desocupação deverá crescer em 2021 e ficar em 14,6% da força de trabalho. Esse índice é 0,7 ponto percentual maior que a taxa projetada para 2020, de 13,9%.
O crescimento da atividade econômica no ano que vem será acompanhado da criação de empregos, segundo a CNI. No entanto, com a queda no receio do contágio pelo novo coronavírus e o fim do auxílio emergencial de renda, mais pessoas deverão voltar a procurar emprego em 2021, o que pressionará a taxa de desocupação.
A estimativa é que a inflação oficial medida pelo Indice Nacional de Preços ao...
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