Electricity planning, operation must follow climate change
Brazil needs to update the way the electricity sector is planned and operated to deal with the new risks that arise in the market with climate change and the energy transition, according to a study by Instituto Acende Brasil, a think tank focused on the sector. The report indicates that the industry will need to rely on more sophisticated scenario analysis that takes into account new threats to ensure security of supply.Severe or extreme weather effects, such as droughts, floods and heat waves, and the consequent incentive to adopt renewable sources to help combat change are making the management of the sector more complex."It is more difficult to plan than in the past, when there was a very consistent relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. There is no such conviction anymore, especially because of distributed generation, which has been growing a lot," said Richard Lee Hochstetler, head of economic and regulatory affairs at Acende Brasil.Weather events are already affecting the sector’s operation. In 2021, Brazil experienced a drought that reduced the volume of water in hydroelectric reservoirs and generated uncertainties about the ability to supply energy at peak consumption times. Similar challenges are experienced in other parts of the world. This week, for example, a heat wave in Argentina caused power outages in Buenos Aires.At the same time, the growth of renewable sources in the power generation mix helps to diversify the electrical system, but also brings new uncertainties to the sector, since the generation by these plants varies throughout the day and according to the climate conditions."Transformations such as the growth of uncontrollable sources and changes in load behavior are happening at a faster pace than the practical ability to adapt planning," Acende Brasil’s head Cláudio Sales said.The Energy Research Company (EPE) and national grid operator ONS have sought to adjust to the new moment. Analysts note, however, that the changes need to be faster, especially to avoid further pressure on energy prices.One example is the ongoing update of the computer system that calculates the plants to be dispatched by the ONS. Specialists point out that changes in the computational model must be faster, as this model is very optimistic in the estimates of the generation capacity of hydroelectric plants by not considering that productivity...
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