Eleição marca fortalecimento da política tradicional, diz Ideia Big Data
O primeiro turno das eleições municipais brasileiras marca o fortalecimento dos partidos da política tradicional e o fim do ciclo de candidatos de fora do sistema, diz Mauricio Moura, presidente do instituto Ideia Big Data. Para ele, a julgar pelo resultado das capitais, ganham força legendas como DEM, PSD, MDB e Podemos – e o PSDB, se mantiver a Prefeitura de São Paulo, como parece o mais provável. Outro aspecto importante do pleito é que, na esquerda, há uma perda de protagonismo do PT para partidos como Psol e PSB.
Na visão de Moura, a eleição municipal deste ano diz muito pouco sobre o pleito presidencial de 2022 em si, mas “aponta alguns caminhos”. Ele diz que a disputa municipal de 2016 foi “o embrião da narrativa do novo na política”. Em São Paulo, o hoje governador João Doria (PSDB) foi eleito com o discurso de gestor.
Em Belo Horizonte, Alexandre Kalil (PSD) caminha para ser reeleito. “Essa narrativa ganhou força e potencial em 2018”, afirma ele. Jair Bolsonaro ganhou a Presidência e candidatos com o discurso antissistema venderam governos importantes, como Romeu Zema (Novo) em Minas Gerais, Wilson Witzel (PSC) no Rio de Janeiro e Comandante Moisés (PSL) em Santa Catarina.
Para Moura, a eleição municipal deste ano sugere que candidaturas da política tradicional serão mais competitivas em 2022 do que em 2018, quando estavam “muito fragilizadas”.
Isso se materializou há dois anos no crescimento do PSL, então o partido de Bolsonaro, com o fortalecimento da narrativa dos “outsiders”. Em 2022, a realidade tende a ser outra. “Alguns candidatos da política tradicional tendem a ser muito mais fortes no nível estadual e no nível federal”, diz Moura. Será muito mais difícil a ocorrência de fenômenos como Zema ou Witzel.
Isso não quer dizer, porém, que Bolsonaro não seja o favorito para o pleito de 2022, afirma o presidente do Ideia Big Data. Ele tem uma aprovação na casa...
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