Febraban eleva projeção para expansão do crédito este ano, mas reduz para 2022
A carteira total de crédito do sistema financeiro deve se manter em um ritmo de expansão elevado e crescer 12,3% em 2021, segundo aponta a Pesquisa Febraban de Economia Bancária e Expectativas. A projeção é superior à registrada na última edição do levantamento (11,3%), feita em agosto, e está em linha com a nova estimativa feita pelo Banco Central, que é de expansão de 12,6%. Para 2022, no entanto, a projeção caiu de 7,8% para 7,4%.
A pesquisa é feita a cada 45 dias, logo após a divulgação da ata da reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom). O atual levantamento, realizado entre os dias 29 de setembro a 05 de outubro, reuniu as percepções de 16 bancos sobre a última ata do Copom e as projeções para o desempenho das carteiras de crédito para o ano corrente e o próximo.
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Para este ano, a previsão de alta do crédito direcionado passou de 7,5% para 8,0%, enquanto no crédito livre foi de 13,2% para 14,1%. A expectativa para o crédito para pessoa física, com recursos livres, subiu de 15,6% para 16,8%. No caso das empresas, avançou de 10,6% para 11,2%. Para 2022, a estimativa de crescimento do crédito livre passou de 9,8% para 9,1%, e do direcionado caiu de 4,5% para 4,2%.
“Mais uma vez, os resultados revelam que a carteira destinada às famílias deverá ser o destaque deste ano, beneficiada pela reabertura da economia, a flexibilização das medidas restritivas e o avanço da vacinação, o que favorece especialmente as linhas ligadas ao consumo”, diz em nota Rubens Sardenberg, diretor de Economia, Regulação Prudencial e Riscos da Febraban.
“Para o próximo ano, a pesquisa detectou que o cenário para o mercado de crédito se mostrará mais desafiador, diante do aumento da Selic e das perspectivas mais modestas de crescimento, além da própria base de comparação mais elevada”, afirma.
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Houve melhora das projeções de inadimplência da carteira livre, tanto para este ano quanto para 2022. Para 2021, a nova projeção recuou 0,2 ponto percentual ante a pesquisa anterior, de 3,4% para 3,2%, enquanto a taxa esperada para 2022 caiu 0,1 ponto percentual, de 3,6% para 3,5%. Em...
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