Febraban: Projeção para expansão do crédito é de 12,7% em 2021 e 7,3% em 2022
A expansão esperada para a carteira total de crédito em 2022 passou por nova revisão de baixa, apontando para um viés de queda no próximo ano, segundo a pesquisa Febraban de Economia Bancária e Expectativas divulgada nesta quinta-feira.
Na segunda revisão seguida para baixo, a alta esperada passou de 7,4% em outubro para 7,3% em novembro, “mais uma vez refletindo a deterioração das perspectivas econômicas e as condições financeiras ainda mais restritivas, em razão da alta mais acentuada da taxa básica de juros, a Selic”. Em agosto, a alta esperada era de 7,8%.
De acordo com a Febraban, a revisão de baixa ocorreu principalmente na carteira com recursos livres (+8%, ante +9,1% na pesquisa de outubro), enquanto a expansão projetada para a carteira direcionada ficou praticamente estável em 4,1% (ante 4,2%).
Para 2021, a expectativa é que a carteira total de crédito deve se manter em um ritmo de expansão elevado e crescer 12,7% em 2021. No levantamento anterior, a projeção era de alta de 12,3% e, no de agosto, de 11,3%. “A projeção prossegue em linha com a estimativa feita pelo Banco Central, que é de expansão de 12,6%”, diz a Febraban.
Conforme o levantamento, o destaque foi a revisão feita na carteira de crédito livre, cuja estimativa de alta passou de 14,1% para 14,8%, impulsionada pela carteira Pessoa Jurídica Livre – estimativa de crescimento passou de 11,2% para 12,7%. Nesta carteira estão linhas como capital de giro, antecipação de faturas de cartões de crédito e desconto de duplicatas e recebíveis.
A pesquisa mostrou ainda que a revisão de alta da carteira livre destinada às famílias foi mais tímida, de 16,8% para 16,9%. “Na carteira com recursos direcionados, a revisão também foi ligeiramente positiva, de alta de 8,0% para 8,1%”, diz a entidade.
“Devido aos bons resultados positivos da carteira de crédito nos últimos meses, ainda poderemos ter revisão de alta nas estimativas para este ano”, afirma, em nota, Rubens Sardenberg, diretor de Economia, Regulação Prudencial e Riscos da Febraban. “O levantamento consolida a análise de que o grande destaque de 2021 será a carteira destinada às famílias, com o aquecimento de linhas ligadas ao consumo, após a...
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