FGV: Minério de ferro mais caro leva IGP-10 à maior alta em 7 meses
O minério de ferro mais caro no setor atacadista impulsionou a inflação apurada pelo Indice Geral de Preços - 10 (IGP-10) de janeiro de 2022. O indicador subiu 1,79% — ante deflação de 0,14% em dezembro de 2021 —, a mais forte taxa desde junho daquele ano (2,32%).
No entanto, para André Braz, economista da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) e responsável pelo indicador, a inflação do minério no atacado pode arrefecer ao longo do mês e contribuir para uma taxa abaixo de 2% nos Indices Gerais de Preços (IGPs) de janeiro.
Caso ocorra desaceleração na variação do preço do minério até o fim do mês, esse fator poderá inibir, em parte, as influências de commodities, combustíveis e mensalidades escolares mais caros no primeiro mês do ano no cálculo dos IGPs, acrescentou ele.
Ao falar sobre o desempenho do IGP-10 de dezembro para janeiro, Braz detalhou que a variação do Indice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo -10 (IPA-10) passou de queda de 0,51% para elevação de 2,27%, no período. Contribuíram para esse cenário aumentos em commodities como soja em grão (2,92%); milho em grão (2,86%), bovinos (2,73%) e minério de ferro (24,56%).
No caso do minério, o técnico comentou que, no IGP-10 de dezembro de 2021, esse produto mostrava recuo de 19,28%, e tem peso de 6% no cálculo total do IPA-10. Portanto, uma mudança brusca na trajetória de preço do item normalmente tem bastante impacto no cálculo total do IPA-10, observou ele.
"A alta do minério respondeu por quase 70% do IPA-10 [de janeiro]", acrescentou. Braz explicou que o preço do item tem oscilado muito, a depender da demanda errática da China, maior comprador global do item.
Ao mesmo tempo, notícias de problemas climáticos, principalmente no sul do país, tem afetado perspectivas de oferta de commodities de origem agrícola, como soja e milho, informou o técnico. Como esses itens também são usados para ração, isso na prática também afeta, e eleva, preço de bovinos, notou o economista.
O impacto da alta de preços no setor atacadista foi tão forte que acabou...
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