FMI afasta temor de estagflação global
O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) está atento aos sinais globais de inflação, mas não vê, em seu cenário-base geral, riscos de estagflação (índices de preços subindo sem crescimento econômico), afirmou Gita Gopinath, economista-chefe da instituição, durante entrevista coletiva de imprensa nesta terça-feira (12) para comentar o último “Panorama Econômico Mundial” (WEO, na sigla em inglês).
"A inflação, de fato, é um dos riscos que nós destacamos neste relatório. Vimos acelerar em muitos países, mas eu quero frisar que esse não é um fenômeno mundial uniforme", afirmou.
O FMI espera que a inflação retorne a níveis mais "normais", anteriores à pandemia, em meados de 2022 para o grupo de economias avançadas, emergentes e em desenvolvimento. Gita destacou, no entanto, que o grau de incerteza é "tremendo" e há heterogeneidade grande entre os países, com riscos altistas, por exemplo, para Estados Unidos e Reino Unido.
"Para os EUA, pode demorar um pouco mais [para índices de preços normalizarem], talvez até o fim do ano [que vem]", disse a economista.
Gita destacou que a retomada econômica é "muito incomum" exatamente porque ocorre após uma crise pandêmica. "Vemos descasamentos nas cadeias que duraram um bom tempo, porque a pandemia também dura um longo tempo", afirmou. "Vemos retomada da demanda, as cadeias não conseguiram se recuperar tão rápido quanto e essa combinação levou a níveis altos de inflação. Vimos isso nos preços de commodities, também em quebras de cadeias", disse.
Diante desse cenário "muito único", Gita afirmou que é preciso "estar particularmente vigilante" para que choques de oferta não acabem desancorando expectativas de inflação, o que pode afetar núcleos (medidas que tentam suavizar o efeito de itens muito voláteis) e exigir respostas de política monetária mais fortes.
Como "sinais para prestar atenção", Gita mencionou, além do comportamento de expectativas de médio e longo prazo, a inflação da moradia e também de salários. Nos EUA, por...
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