FMI: Covid-19 pode provocar crises de dívida externa em países emergentes
Novos surtos de covid-19 podem aumentar os riscos de que economias emergentes e desenvolvimento, mais vulneráveis a repentinas saídas de capital, enfrentem crises de dívida externa, alerta o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) no Relatório do Setor Externo, divulgado nesta terça-feira.
O impacto econômico da pandemia tem sido especialmente agudo em países que dependem do petróleo, do turismo ou de remessas de trabalhadores migrantes que vivem no exterior. As consequências da covid-19 já estão sendo observadas nos saldos em conta corrente dos mais afetados pela crise.
O FMI afirma que o déficit em conta corrente de países exportadores de petróleo, caso de Noruega, Rússia e a Arábia Saudita, deve ultrapassar 3% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Em países como Costa Rica, Marrocos e Portugal, as perdas no turismo devem provocar uma queda equivalente a 2% dos respectivos PIBs. Já Paquistão, Guatemala e Egito serão os mais afetados pelo menor volume de remessas.
“Choques intensos podem ter efeitos duradouros e exigir ajustes econômicos significativos”, escreveu o FMI no relatório.
Permitir uma depreciação da moeda seria a melhor maneira de evitar o impacto da crise, sempre que isso for possível, recomendou a instituição. No entanto, intervenções cambiais ou a adoção de políticas de controle de capital podem ser usadas em algumas circunstâncias.
Para o FMI, o ressurgimento da pandemia pode provocar um novo estresse dos mercados financeiros, levando países que já tinham grandes déficits em conta corrente, dívidas em moeda estrangeira ou baixas reservas a entrar em crise. Dessa forma, eles poderão ser obrigados a dar calotes ou a recorrer ao fundo para obter mais recursos.
Antes da pandemia, o mundo já enfrentava “desequilíbrios persistentes” entre gastos globais e poupança, o que, na...
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