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Fund managers downbeat about local stocks, BofA survey shows

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Vincent

The sentiment of fund managers with the performance of Brazil’s benchmark stock index Ibovespa has soured, and concerns about an economic recession driven by higher interest rates at the end of the current tightening cycle have also increased.Bank of America’s monthly survey with managers shows that only 31% of respondents see the Ibovespa above 120,000 points at the end of next year, up from 44% in the survey released in October. In addition, most managers pointed out that the Selic policy interest rate at 12% at the end of the tightening cycle could generate an economic recession in Brazil. The Selic is current at 7.75% a year.In the BofA survey, there were already bets on a contraction in the Brazilian GDP next year, while in October there was no expectation of a recession. In addition, the number of managers who expect growth between zero and 1% in 2022 has increased to a little over 40%, up from 20% in October.Sentiment toward the stock market, in particular, showed strong deterioration in BofA’s survey. "Only 21% believe that stocks will outperform other asset classes in Brazil over the next six months, the lowest since the survey began in 2018," the American bank...

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